Ten Q&A about 2019 Iranian protests
How did the Iranian “Black November” started?
On November 15th, the Iranian regime, under the most stringent sanctions ever and without any notice, increased gasoline prices by 200%. The reaction in the social media was swift, especially after the re-post of a picture from a supposedly Chinese peaceful social unrest, where people closed highways by simply turning off their cars in the middle of a freeway. Within a few hours, the Iranian people did the same and closed major roads and highways in protest. This was the trigger for the tit for tat contention between people and the regime.
Why a 200% increase in the price of gas? Did the Iranian regime have any other option or was it forced to have such an increase in price?
The Iranian government had two main reasons to increase the price of gasoline. First, it wanted to decrease the demand for gasoline and second to increase its revenue from the sales of gasoline. The average daily consumption of gasoline in Iran is 94 million liters, whereas the maximum daily production capacity of this commodity is 110 million liters. In 2018 Iran launched the “Persian Gulf” refinery and by doing so became self-sufficient in gasoline production. However, with the current rate of consumption growth, Iran would require to import gasoline within two years. Old and worn cars as well as high-consuming (faulty) automobiles are the main reason for the high consumption rate. In addition to all of these points, due to the low price of gasoline in Iran, it has become a heaven for fuel smugglers.
Iran needs hard, foreign currency and has to limit its expenditure in Rials. Iran needs money to survive the sanctions. Iranian oil exports (and therefore sales) has dropped from 2.5MBPD to less than 500KBPD. In an interview, the Iranian President (Mr. Hasan Rouhani) noted that the annual budget to run the country is 450,000 Billion Toman (each Dollor is 12K Toman or 120K Rials) and that the highest level of tax the government can collect is 150,000 Billion Toman. He added “we need another 300,000 Billion Toman, where do we get it from then? The largest part of the budget in Iran is from the sales of Oil.”
In May 2019, the supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei ordered the government to increase the price of gasoline. His goal was the same as the government, which is to limit the consumption and generate revenues for the government, especially when being threatened by sanctions. The government would then be able to increase its “Rials” revenue and at the same time limit the consumption.
Were the demonstrations solely related to the increase of the price of gas?
In the beginning the demonstrations were a response to the increase of the price of gasoline, however, they suddenly turned “anti-regime” and “anti-supreme-leader.” The news was augmented by reports that several MPs resigned from their posts as well. Besides, three of the highly respected Marjas (Grand Ayatollahs) protested this decision by the government and at the same time both pro and anti-government groups, perceiving that this move adds to the hardship of people took a hardline in responding to the government’s decision.
During the last two years, and following the crescendo of US sanctions against Iran, the people of Iran have been facing a crumbling economy, one that affects the masses the most. The leader of Iran is not willing to negotiate with the US and the Americans increase the pressure by expanding the sanctions daily. People, crushed by the economic hardship, inflation and unemployment see Mr. Trump’s occasional greenlight on negotiations at the same time as they see Ayatollah Khamenei’s persistence on not negotiating. All of these make them angry and adds to their frustration.
How did the regime confront the demonstrations?
People started demonstrating on the first day. They blocked highways and streets with their vehicles as civil disobedience, yet the police and anti-riot militia took an iron fist policy from the beginning of the unrest and even killed one person before the dawn following the announcement (the announcement for the increase in the price of gasoline came at midnight). The police started breaking the windshield of people’s automobiles, who were demonstrating peacefully. The confrontation escalated immediately and led to the burning of several banks, governmental buildings, and looting shopping centers. There are credible reports that some of the banks and gas stations were set aflame by the security and police forces.
The regime shut down the Internet on the second day of the protest nationally. Before the shutdown, people watched several videos of demonstrations and the brutal crackdown by the police and shared them on social media. The Internet was shut down for five full days in Iran and is considered to be one of the most complex and widespread Internet shut down in the world.
During a speech, the leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei, tried to curb some of the opposition close to the regime by announcing his support for the government’s decision.
Who were the demonstrators and what did they demand?
Even though the demonstrations started as a protest against the increase in the price of gas, but the slogans and chants reflected people’s frustration and anger against inflation, perpetual economic corruption and their dismay of the political and governmental strata of the country. People’s anger at the policies of the ruling elite can be witnessed in the burning of the offices of “Friday Prayers’ Imam” offices (who are the representatives of the leader of the Islamic Republic) in many cities across the country as well as the anti-Khamenei chants. The Iranian regime has been facing major demonstrations almost every ten years, however, it has observed two major, nationwide demonstrations in the last two years, both based on economic issues. It is clear that the length of the cycle has decreased dramatically and unlike previous demonstrations that were mainly held by the elite (middle-class educated) and were based on civil and political demands, the new protests are mainly based on economic issues and attended by the lower-income class of people. Most of the demonstrators and the people killed in the recent demonstrations were from the young, unemployed people living in the suburbs of big cities. Presently more than 40 percent of people live on the outskirts of cities.
What can we learn from the available statistics on the recent demonstrations?
Based on reports from Amnesty International, 208 people were killed in the recent demonstrations, some news sources raise the AI’s estimate to 400. In many cases, the security forces have coerced the families of the deceased to keep silent. Also, the official accounts of the government put the number of incarcerated demonstrators at 1000, but the apprehensions are increasing.
More than 700 private and governmental owned banks and approximately 9 seminaries and “Friday Prayers leader” offices were burnt to the ground. The economic damage for the shutdown of the Internet is estimated to have been approximately US$61.00M per day, which puts the economic damage for shutting down the Internet somewhere between US$369M to US$1.5B.
Why did the demonstrations turned violent?
Two reasons turned the demonstrations into violent confrontations. The first is the public anger over the economic hardship and the lack of capability (or even culpability) of the governing body in confronting the economic hardship. And the second reason is intentional violent confrontation of people by the security apparatus.
Following the implementation of the new sanctions, the decrease in the income level of ordinary Iranians and the lowering of the level of economic prosperity in the country, people are faced with instability in the economy, perpetual bankruptcy of production facilities, unemployment and high inflation. At the same time the public has become restless facing the injustice and the daunting structural corruption of the ruling religious oligarchy.
In 2009, during the “green movement” approximately three million people marched in a calm demonstration in Tehran. However, as the security forces and the anti-riot police started confronting the demonstrators and as the level of violence increased, the number of demonstrators dwindled. In the recent unrest in Iran, the regime immediately started a violent crackdown to prevent peaceful demonstrators joining the demonstrators. Based on the official version of the events, less than 100,000 people participated in the riots. The violent and inhumane confrontation was aimed at preventing peaceful demonstrations. There are many videos, circulated in social media, that shows that the security forces were the ones burning banks and damaging automobiles and buildings and not the people.
How did the Iranian officials react towards the demonstrations?Immediately following the announcement for the increase of the prices of gasoline, critics of the government (of President Rouhani) protested the decision. Some of the MPs in the Parliament announced their unawareness of the decision and called the move illegal and against the constitution. However, the government announced that the decision was made in a “leader-appointed 3 party Committee” consisting of the Speaker of the Parliament, The President and the Head of the Judiciary. As riots spread across the country, the leader announced his support for the decision calling the demonstrators rioters, agitators, counterrevolutionaries and enemies of Iran.
President Rouhani announced that the decision was good for the country and that the demonstrations were a conspiracy by the enemies of the state.
In a rare move and to contain the situation, the leader held three speeches in ten days. The deputy commander in chief of IRGC, compared the demonstrations to operation “Karbala 4,” an operation during the 8-year war with Iraq, which had the largest casualty counts and which was lost to the Iraqi forces. The commander of the Baseej forces (the paramilitary reserve forces) called the nationwide demonstrations as “A complete World War” and mentioned “only God can save us.”
How did the West reacted to the demonstrations?
Due to the Internet shut down and the lack of information and verifiable sources, it took world leaders a few days to react to the Iranian regime’s violent crackdown of the people. Donald J. Trump and many European leaders only reacted to the events after a week. They condemned the crackdown and the Internet shutdown. However, a big question by the Iranian people was (and is) that why there were no international outcry over the cruel and violent (bordering genocidal) suppression of the Iranian people by the regime?
A possible answer to point “a” can be that at present time, the Europeans are not in favor of a violent overthrow of the Iranian regime. The Libyan operations is still fresh in the minds of Europeans who are afraid of a flood of Iranian and Afghans (living in Iran) refugees, shall the country falls into a civil war, pouring into Europe.
What does the future holds?
The majority of people were shocked by the sudden increase in the price of gasoline and the complete Internet shutdown. They are now completely frustrated and disappointed. For the people of Iran, the Internet, with all of the censorship and filtering, was the only avenue to connect to the rest of the world and now everyone fears that the country is turning into another North Korea.
Immediately following the reconnection of the Internet, the word “immigration” became the key search word in Google in Iran. It is now a trending word. Based on the data from the Turkish Center for Statistics, Iranians have purchased 3600 apartments in Turkey in the first 9 months of 2019. A few months ago, an advisor to the Minister of Roads and Urban Development announced that over 1.5 million people have applied for immigration to Canada and Australia. This is a clear sign that Iranian society is losing its intellectual, social and economic capital. This trend will speed up following the latest demonstrations.
Even though President Rouhani is interested in negotiating with the west, the leader Ayatollah Khamenei has been an ardent averse to any negotiations. Ayatollah Khamenei is hopeful that the impeachment inquiry will succeed and or Trump will not be re-elected in 2020. However, the recent exchange of prisoners (i.e. hostages) may be a sign that a new round of secret negotiations has already begun between Iran and the United States.
The political atmosphere in Iran will most probably become more radicalized. There is a parliamentary election in February 2020, and it is expected that the lack of interest in people to participate in the elections will lead to a more homogenous yet radical parliament.
If the economic sanctions continue, inflation will exceed 50% and unemployment will skyrocket. The government will face a much larger deficit and eventually, this will lead to the breakdown of the infrastructure of the country.
